How Did Food Production Change from the 2014–2016 Baseline? (2022)

The Food Production Index is easy to misread as a ranking of how much food countries produce in absolute terms. It is not. World Bank indicator AG.PRD.FOOD.XD sets each country’s average food-production level in 2014–2016 equal to 100, then shows how a later year compares with that country’s own baseline. All 195 observations in the supplied country dataset are dated 2022, so the map can use one synchronized year without mixing reference periods.

The 2022 median is 106.08 and the simple country-level mean is 109.39. 142 countries and areas are above 100, 52 are below 100, and one is exactly 100. Senegal’s 177.49 means its index is about 77.49% above its own 2014–2016 average. It does not mean Senegal produces more food in absolute volume than India, China, or the United States.

An index value of 100 is each country’s own 2014–2016 average

The base is not a common world production quantity. Each country receives a baseline of 100 for its average production level during 2014–2016. A value of 120 therefore indicates a level roughly 20% above that baseline, while 90 indicates a level roughly 10% below it. Comparing 120 in one country with 90 in another tells us which moved farther from its own baseline, not which produced more tonnes of food.

That distinction prevents a major ranking error. India records 127.82 in 2022 while Senegal records 177.49, but the index does not support a claim that Senegal’s total food production exceeded India’s. The appropriate reading is that Senegal’s aggregate food-production index increased much more relative to its 2014–2016 reference level.

FAO combines edible, nutritious food commodities using international-price weights

The World Bank identifies the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) as the source. FAO production indices aggregate quantities of different agricultural commodities using average international commodity prices from the base period as weights. Quantities used as seed and feed are deducted in a parallel way to reduce double counting. The food-production category covers commodities considered edible and containing nutrients; coffee and tea are excluded because they have little nutritive value.

This means the indicator is not a simple sum of tonnes of wheat, rice, maize, meat, and other products. Different commodities need weights before they can be combined into one aggregate index. The resulting measure is useful for tracking relative production over time within countries, but it is distinct from food calories available, farm revenue, food prices, consumption, or a physical tonnage total.

The 2022 median is 106.08, about 6% above the base-period level

Giving each of the 195 observations equal weight, the median is 106.08 and the simple mean is 109.39. The first quartile is 99.20 and the third quartile is 118.56, so the middle half of country-level index values runs from about 99.2 to 118.6. Because the median is above 100, more than half of the synchronized observations are above their own 2014–2016 baseline.

There are 24 observations below 90, 28 from 90 to below 100, and 59 from 100 to below 110. Another 51 are from 110 to below 125, 27 from 125 to below 150, and 6 are at 150 or more. These classes are visualization aids rather than economic or food-security thresholds.

Senegal, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are far above their base-period levels

Senegal has the highest 2022 index at 177.49. Saudi Arabia follows at 172.66 and Oman at 170.06. Mozambique is 161.67, Mongolia 157.87, and Tajikistan 150.12. Seychelles, the Central African Republic, Malawi, Qatar, Guinea, Hong Kong SAR, Fiji, Mali, and Uganda complete the top 15. These positions mean that their 2022 index levels were high relative to their own 2014–2016 averages.

The index alone does not identify why production changed. Weather, harvested area, livestock output, irrigation, inputs, policy, technology, and the starting level in the base period can all matter. A country with an unusually low baseline can also record a large proportional increase without becoming one of the world’s largest producers in absolute terms.

India is 127.82, while Korea, the United States, and Japan are close to 100

Among selected large economies, India records 127.82 and the Russian Federation 126.44. Indonesia is 117.14, Mexico 117.03, Brazil 113.77, South Africa 113.24, Australia 112.10, China 111.75, and Canada 111.63. Argentina is 109.39. Korea is 101.21, the United States 100.86, and Japan 100.27, all close to their own base-period averages. France is 94.02 and Germany 92.71.

Those numbers should not be used to infer food self-sufficiency or total production size. A value near 100 in the United States does not imply low output; it means the aggregate index in 2022 was close to the U.S. average in 2014–2016. Absolute comparisons require commodity quantities, production values, or other measures designed for cross-country scale.

The Gambia, Cuba, and Hungary are well below the base-period level

The lowest synchronized values include the Gambia at 71.08, Cuba at 71.39, Hungary at 74.66, Cabo Verde at 74.78, Malta at 75.95, Myanmar at 76.96, Bhutan at 77.75, and Haiti at 77.85. The Gambia’s value can be read as an index level roughly 28.9% below its 2014–2016 average. It cannot by itself establish a food shortage or hunger condition.

Food security depends on much more than domestic production. Imports, inventories, household income, prices, distribution systems, and access to nutritious food all matter. A country can offset lower domestic production with imports, while a country with higher production can still face affordability or access problems. The Food Production Index should therefore not be treated as a food-security score.

Agricultural land, food production, and food prices answer different questions

Green Map’s agricultural-land and arable-land maps show how much national land falls into specific land-use categories. The Food Production Index instead measures how aggregate production changed relative to a historical baseline. A country with a large agricultural-land share does not automatically have a high 2022 production index, and a country with limited agricultural land can still increase output through intensive production.

The monthly food-price-inflation dataset measures price movements, not production volume. Higher production does not guarantee lower consumer prices, and lower production does not force prices to rise by the same proportion. Trade, exchange rates, transport, inventories, and policy can all affect food prices independently of the production index.

Data source and calculation method

The statistical series is World Bank World Development Indicators AG.PRD.FOOD.XD – Food production index (2014-2016 = 100). The World Bank identifies FAO as the source and lists a WDI reference period through 2022. FAO production indices use the Laspeyres method, combining commodity quantities with 2014–2016 average international commodity prices as weights and deducting quantities used as seed and feed to reduce double counting.

• World Bank DataBank – AG.PRD.FOOD.XD metadata
• World Bank – Food production index
• FAOSTAT – Production indices

All 195 observations used here are genuinely dated 2022, so no older values were backfilled into the main comparison. The reported mean and median are unweighted country-level summaries and should not be confused with a world production index weighted by actual food output. ISO-3 codes match 166 observations directly to the Natural Earth low-resolution boundary layer; small islands and separately reported areas can retain valid statistics without appearing as distinct filled polygons.

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Related Articles

These Green Map pages separate changes in food production from land use and food-price movements.

• Global Arable Land Share Map – 2023 Country Comparison
• Global Agricultural Land Share Map – 2023 Country Comparison
• World Bank Monthly Food Price Inflation Data Guide – 37 Countries